A participatory evaluation method was designed to test the ToC's assumptions and measure ACM outcomes. The first phase established a trans-disciplinary research team to act as facilitators and brokers, a multi-stakeholder planning process demonstrating adaptation pathways practice, and tri-alling of 'no regrets' adaptation strategies in case study sub-districts. The project's Theory of Change (ToC) consisted of three causally-linked phases which mirrored the evolutionary stages of ACM: priming stakeholders, enabling policies and programs, and implementing adaptation. ![]() This paper describes a 4 year governance experiment in Nusa Tenggara Barat Province, Indonesia, which applied adaptive co-management (ACM) as a governance approach to 'prime' a transformation to adaptation pathways-based development planning. However, there are no examples of how to operationalise adaptation pathways in developing countries, or how to evaluate the process. By taking a complex systems approach to decision-making, the adaptation pathways construct provides useful principles. Mainstreaming climate change and future uncertainty into rural development planning in developing countries is a pressing challenge.
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